North Korea Nuclear Bomb Test: The Fun Is Just Beginning

In 2006, North Korea exploded a small nuclear device that was close to one kiloton in explosive power. There was even some thought that it had been a dud. A few days ago, they detonated a 5-10-20 kiloton nuclear bomb. It may have been the size of the one used on Hiroshima or Nagasaki. There is still some question as to what the exact size of this device was. We await the data to confirm how big the blast was. No matter what size, five or twenty kilotons, it is significant. A five kiloton weapon has close to 50% of the destructive effect of the Hiroshima bomb.

Why now? Succession. The blast may draw the military closer to the appointed heir and solidify the dynasty that Kim Jong-il is hoping to leave. The recent detonation may help align the loyalty of the hardliners, the military and family members to the third son, Kim Jong-woon. The current leader is ill having had a stroke recently. He appears to have designated Kim Jong –woon as his successor.

North Korea is no doubt high on the potential problem list of President Obama. The Clinton and Bush administrations tried various strategies to get North Korea to join the world community and give up its nuclear program. Both failed. The Koreans say they destroyed their only nuclear reactor and took down their cooling tower. They say the oil that was promised them was not delivered and that the US demanded written guarantees to early. The US sent food, took them off the terrorist list and unfroze the money in various banks. Then refused inspections and detonated their first bomb. Then they test fired three rockets. Today, they rattled the sabers more and threatened South Korea because they joined the stabilization council.

The Obama policy will be the denuclearization of Korea. The UN will meet to decide on what penalties to apply to North Korea. These will be short term and ineffective. We must engage them in talk and bring them into the world community and end their isolation. However, it is now the time for China to step in and manage things. Previously, they sent a high level diplomat to force North Korea back to the talking table with the US, Russia, Japan, China and others. They did not dictate policy to North Korea but brought them back to the talks. Perhaps they need to do this again and take a bigger hand in events. After the first detonation, they were disturbed. This time they report being strongly upset and displeased. This will be a good test for the world to watch and see how China will move. This is their backyard and they are the 800 pound Panda bear in the area. It will show us if they are going to move into a role of leadership and assistance in this area of Asia. Hopefully soon, or things will really get to the fun stage if North Korea tries to export materials to our enemies. It will be in our hands, with or without China’s or Russia’s help, to stop the proliferation.