North Korea Set for New Missile Launch. Are We Expecting a New Saddam?

What is going on with these guys? They detonate a nuclear device. Days later they test fire two long range rockets. After South Korea joined the US sea initiative last week, the North declared that the 1953 armistice was void. Now they tell their merchant marine to avoid some Yellow Sea areas as they may test fire another rocket. They were warned away for two months. This time period of two months is noteworthy. Some experts on North Korea declare that they are raising the ante. No longer simply rattling the saber, they are becoming a real threat. An article in the FINACIAL TIMES (June 3) by C. Oliver cites a researcher, Choi Choon-heum (Korea Institute for National Unification), that “The North is just waiting to be provoked into firing.” But we ask why? What can they hope to gain from a war?

South Korea recently changed their “sunshine policy” from holding their fire to shooting first if the North is threatening them. They moved a destroyer last week into the waters where they engaged the North in 1999 and 2002 over some areas both claim as their own. The North does not recognize maritime borders established in that area by the South. Events are continuing to escalate in some areas but not in others.

Both South Korea and US troops are at a higher level of alert, but no new forces are moving into South Korea from Japan or the US. At least, nothing has been so far reported. Gates, the Secretary of Defense, and South Korea both report no movement of North Korean troops to the border or any “extraordinary movements”.

Nor have we seen the UN or China and Russia come out with any sanctions yet. The US diplomatic corps says new ideas are to be announced and put forward to our allies. The deputy secretary of state is visiting various capitals in the Far East to advance them. China, Japan, Russia and South Korea are on the dance card. However, we are not being told what the ideas are at this time.

So where do we go from here? Why all the rattling by North Korea? What do they want to gain? If they crossed the border or did something aggressive against the South, it would only mean the downfall of their regime. Kim’s future family dynasty would topple. Anarchy and bedlam would break out on the northern part of the peninsula.

Why no action yet from the UN? Sanctions like freezing international monies of the North, cutting off all trading of arms, foods and energy and terminating diplomatic and other travel would hurt. But nothing can be done that is effective unless China agrees to help. They are unwilling to go along with sanctions because they fear the collapse of the current regime and chaos on their border.